Niagara Falls, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

460
FXUS61 KBUF 260949
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
549 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain this afternoon and evening, with a chance of a
few thunderstorms and downpours across the western Southern Tier.

2) Cold temperatures and occasional lake effect snow returns for
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain this afternoon and evening, with a
chance of a few thunderstorms and downpours across the western
Southern Tier.

A warm front will move east of the eastern Lake Ontario region early
this morning, with any sprinkles or scattered light showers ending.
Otherwise, the rest of the area will be dry through midday as a mid
level dry slot briefly crosses the region.

A surface cold front will then move south across the Great Lakes
later this afternoon and evening. The front will lay out parallel to
the mid level flow, with a mid level shortwave and upper level jet
support allowing a weak frontal wave to ripple east along the
advancing frontal boundary. Thermal packing and increasing
frontogenesis along the frontal zone will support a period of
widespread rain later this afternoon and evening across the entire
region.

The rain may be moderate to briefly heavy for a few hours late this
afternoon and evening, with the best chance of heavy downpours south
of the NYS Thruway. Rainfall amounts are unlikely to be heavy enough
to support much flood risk, although minor ponding of water in poor
drainage areas is possible. More organized thunderstorms and the
main severe weather risk will remain south and west of the area,
with just a few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible
across the western Southern Tier where weak instability develops.

Organized rain will end from north to south late evening through the
early overnight as the front moves south towards the Mid Atlantic
states. Northerly upslope flow in the wake of the cold front will
likely support some lingering light showers or drizzle overnight
south of Lake Ontario, especially across the higher terrain south of
the NYS Thruway. A few wet snowflakes may mix in late tonight if
precipitation holds on long enough.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold temperatures and occasional lake effect snow
returns for Friday and Saturday.

A cold front will cross the region on Thursday evening, ushering in
a cold airmass that will bring temperatures well below normal once
again for Friday through Saturday night. This cold airmass will
bring temperatures to between 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Afternoon temperatures in the upper 20s to near 40 for Friday can be
expected, with slightly cooler temperatures in the mid 20s to mid
30s for Saturday. The core of this cold airmass will push into the
Western & North Central NY area by Saturday morning, when 850H
temperatures will approach the -15C to -18C range. These values are
among some of the coldest 850H temperatures experienced for this
time of year per the SPC sounding climatology data. Luckily, for
those who are looking forward to the warmer weather, temperatures
will rebound starting Sunday and continue to warm through the new
work week.

With the cold temperatures pushing into the region starting late
Thursday night, lake effect and upslope snow will be possible for
Friday morning and then again for later Friday night through
Saturday night. Most of the snow is expected for areas south and
southeast of Lake Ontario. While temperatures and synoptic moisture
will be favorable for a lake response, the overlap of both is
limited to primarily Saturday morning. This will otherwise limit the
lake response off of the lakes. Even with the better potential for
snow on Saturday morning, snowfall amounts should be limited to
around a half an inch south and southeast of Lake Ontario. Shifting
winds from the northwest to the west will also cause lake snow to
become mobile through the day on Saturday. By the time some of the
better synoptic moisture comes into the region later Saturday, warm
air advection will increase 850H temperatures closer to the -10C
mark, which will limit equilibrium heights. But there may be a brief
window late Saturday evening where an organized lake band develops
southeast of Lake Ontario with increased moisture and cooler
temperatures. Uncertainty still remains at this point in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front will move east of the eastern Lake Ontario region early
this morning, with any sprinkles or scattered light showers ending.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail through midday with mid/high cloud
decks.

A strong cold front will move south across the eastern Great Lakes
later this afternoon and evening, with a weak wave of low pressure
rippling east down the advancing frontal boundary. Strong forcing
and deep moisture will produce widespread rain later this afternoon
and evening across the region. The rain may be moderate to heavy for
a few hours, with the best chance of embedded downpours south of the
NYS Thruway during the late afternoon and evening. More organized
thunderstorms will remain south and west of the area, but a few
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across the
western Southern Tier where weak instability develops. VSBY will
deteriorate to MVFR/local IFR in the rain.

CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR a few hours after the rain develops,
with a period of widespread IFR then expected tonight along and
behind the cold front in moist northerly upslope flow beneath the
frontal inversion. A few light showers and drizzle will linger
behind the cold front overnight south of Lake Ontario. If
precipitation holds on long enough, it may end as a brief period of
wet snow late tonight.

Outlook...

Friday...Areas of MVFR CIGS with a chance of scattered light snow
showers in the morning, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds in the 10-15 knot range will produce some chop on
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through early afternoon. A cold front
will then move south across the lower Great Lakes later this
afternoon, with winds becoming north behind the front and increasing
tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario
overnight through Friday morning. Lake Erie will become very choppy
as well, with near Small Craft Advisory conditions late tonight
through Friday morning.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
         Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
         Friday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock